So ... unless the Killer gets realy tricky - I'm dead tonight.
It doesn't hurt anything to tell you all that the previous evening when there was no wolf kill I SAVED Rusty with my potion. I FULLY figured Rusty would have protected himself last night, but ...
I have my poison, and now is the time to use it (assuming it will go off before the killer gets me ???).
UNFORTUNATELY - anyone could be the killer at this point, even snoopy. The afflicted no longer matters. Just me and the killer.
Time for the accusations to fly fast and furious, but PLEASE include reasoning if there is any.
We have a DISMAL 14% chance to guess the killer for lynching.
Tomorrow, there will be only 6 left alive. If one is still the killer there will have only a 16% chance of IDing the killer. the next day will see the sun shine on only 4 townspeople ... at least then ther will be a 25% chance ... course it will be the LAST chance ...
The duck is legendary now. Many have tried to kill him, all have failed. Some got turned into tasty snacks. Or made into slippers and the occasional hat. Even if you killed him, he'd just come back ... undead.
Strangely you've never seen any other ducks in town, the only other birds being vultures, ravens, and crows. So I have no clue what sort of bird flesh you were eating earlier in the game :)
NOW is a good time for the witch to let us know if they saved someone the night before last. The witch's potion doesn't save someone from the Cerial Killer anyways and we NEED to know if the afflicted turned. the difference between one wolf and zero wolves is HUGE. I personally don't want to wait until the night phase to see if the wolf kills someone to find out.
As far as finding the killer goes, only one of us has an alibi. Logophylia1 the Witch.
Werewolves of Miller's Hollow has just turned into Clue.
Is this a good idea? I'm not criticizing, but let's face it, you can be a little eager to elect Sheriffs and we should talk this out first.
If we elect the serial killer as sheriff, we're pretty much done. Also, whoever is elected sheriff will probably be killed every night in an attempt by the serial killer to get the position for themselves.
If the witch poisons someone and the serial killer kills someone and we lynch someone tonight, we're down to 5 people. The next night we'd be down to 3 people and that would be the last chance. It doesn't look like a tie would even be possible (except maybe tonight).
Here is my theory. I think that the SK is an inexperienced player, based on kill history. That is an assumption, because the wolf of course can be an experienced player making it look like that, but that's the wine... Based on that, it leaves Snoopy or Faymar as the likely suspects. I think I'm going to vote Faymar, simply because she's agreed with me much more throughout the game. I would certainly not mind if you poisoned Snoopy in the night, just to give me some more clearance. However, that takes you trusting me, which is always a hard thing in these games :D
Mkay. A) told you I was at least not a wolf. B) I feel so very sexy for calling both wolves like that, yesterday. C) What the hell happened in the night?
I decided I wanted to make this top tier, so I could find it again:
Reposted!
In Depth Analysis time!:
Night 1: SK kills Myshanter. I was very surprised by this, as she is excitable, get more chatty as the game goes on, and isn't well known by most of the people here... It's a random kill, an intelligent call, but nothing exceptional. Night 2: SK gets Chessiekitty. Pure luck. Another seemingly random kill, yields results. We love the serial killer. Night 3: SK goes for the Hunter. It's a mistake, as I said before, because the SK doubles up on a kill. The SK especially should not have gone for the hunter, because they do not have the redundancy the wolves had. If the hunter shoots them in retaliation, they're done. Night 4: SK gets Sonicbunny. I'd had my own suspicions of him, but again, it's mostly a random, lucky kill. They're doing a good job of avoiding a pattern, but that's not a sign of experience, but intelligence. Night 5: Ragnarok goes down in martyr glory. It is impossible to tell how this kill actually happened. It is either a mistake (SK targeted Rusty, along with the wolves) or proof that I'm wrong (SK got unlucky, and targeted the Martyr independantly). Since I can't make a conclusion, I'm forced to ignore this. Night 6: SK goes and Kills Lorriet, leaving Rusty alive. I view this as a huge mistake, for the reasons stated previously. Night 7: SK kills Stride. HUGE MISTAKE. Yes, we've no wolves. But let the village do the work. We'd have likely lynched Stride today once we found that Slojae was actually a wolf. The killer would have been better served by killing off someone else, or even the Witch, in preparation for the total endgame. It was a very inexperienced move, in my opinion, getting caught up in the "Kill the wolf!" mentality of the village, and not following their own goal.
That concludes Dragon's Attack Analysis. As for H&H, he is in fact my suspicion if the inexperienced theory doesn't pan out. The only data we have is the SK kill records. Given the fact that I have shared my conclusions, I can do no more on that. There is one corollary factor, which is not damning, but worries me about H&H. Since I've not got a night phase, I've been at leisure to sleep through the 11 o'clock deadlines. I don't post at the end of many days, simply cause I've finally crashed, and don't get up until noon. The night phases have, for the most part, been very short. The players have been active at the right times, and gotten everything done. H&H has been doing a lot of posting at the end of days, and that makes me a little suspicious. If you'd like to change the time on trying my theories, I'll gladly vote H&H today. But I still think we're better served by dropping the newer players today, and offing H&H tomorrow.
One mistake you made, however, is that your potion does not cost us a day. You HAVE to use it. We lynch one. We're at 7. SK kills you, we're at 6, you poison, we're at 5. Day one complete. Day two, we lynch one, SK kills one. We're at 3.
As opposed to. We lynch one, SK kills one, we're at 6. Lynch, kill, 4. It makes no difference, we've got two days left. Might as well give those last two villagers 50% odds, instead of 33%.
Well, since voting for someone just because they want a Sheriff has been proven to be an idiotic tactic and gotten good villagers killed, I VOTE FAYMAR.
They also fit Dragonattack's "SK is a noob" analysis.
Looking at those of us left standing and my understanding of how things are breaking down, My gut is telling me DA's logic leads to Faynmar, Expierenced and smart leads to Hungry Hollow or evilben, and avoident points to snoopy. Wanting to draw snoopy back in I would vote for him, but not wanting to prolong multiple ties I am going to join in on the no love for faymar. VOTE FAYMAR
I think I'm going to stick with tradition and vote against the bandwagon. You seem a nice enough fellow, and I promise this isn't personal. It seems that DA is often pretty quick to make admittedly logical accusations of how all the other players could be the SK, but doesn't really include himself. I'm sticking with my gut.
I agree that it's suspicious. DA has everything worked out nice and neat, doesn't he? Tonight we lynch an inexperienced villager. And he says I'm suspicious, but that's okay, we'll lynch me tomorrow. And on the next day, the SK has the win.
I don't know that it makes him the SK, but he seems to be very loudly taking charge and posting some pretty in-depth arguments as to why we shouldn't even be looking in his direction.
I thought of a way to keep the witch one more day. Vote in a sheriff (not the witch) Have the sheriff put the witch in jail for the night. The witch will last ONE MORE full round. One more day to decide who the poison goes to.
The Sheriff doesn't jail people, that's the magistrate. Also, the magistrate doesn't jail people at night, only the day. Thanks for thinking, though :D
Ya know, let's make this simpler. Logo, don't witchbomb Snoopy tonight, if you aren't willing to trust me 100%. I've laid out all the logic I'm going to come up with, and except for a little bit of discussion to fixate on, not much more is going on. If you've even the slightest doubt about me, witchbomb me, and that way it'll be revealed I'm a villager, and everyone can use my information to work this out.
That's unfortunately how the serial killer hunt goes. We were lucky and had the one last game lynched on day 2, for no reason really. Part of that feeling, I'm sure, comes from lynching our seer early. i still can't get over that... the village lynched its seer... It's been a special game. But then, that's why we play. Cause every time it gives us a new way to say "you're fucking kidding me, he did WHAT?" ;P
![[info]](http://l-stat.livejournal.com/img/userinfo.gif?v=92.2){kind=small}
millershollow) wrote,
September 30 2009, 18:30:43 UTC 2 years ago
AMAZING!
Talk about snatching victory from the jaws of defeat!!!!September 30 2009, 18:34:06 UTC 2 years ago
Re: AMAZING!
so now they just have to worry about the killer...2 years ago
2 years ago
2 years ago
2 years ago
September 30 2009, 18:35:33 UTC 2 years ago
I would love to be able to just let the serial killer go on thier merry way at this point with a nice cash thank you attatched !
Hmmmm... or this IS Miller's Hollow - maybe if we promised to bring in new vilagers for the killer each week ?
Anyway - So now we have a race to find the killer ...
September 30 2009, 18:53:04 UTC 2 years ago
Haha, definitely. Wolf killer extraordinaire!
I'm not sure the village stands a chance now that s/he's not on our side, though.
September 30 2009, 18:40:54 UTC 2 years ago
The List ....
The LIVING (8):dragonattack
evilben
faymar
flipperchaz
gnatdbug
hungryandhollow
logophylia1
snoopyh42
The Specials Remaining:
Witch
Serial Killer
Afflicted (possibly)
The DEAD :
gorillashaman: Villager
myshanter: Villager
cuddlycthulhu: Cupid
baronlaw: Ralph Nader
maniakes: Villager
chessiekitty: Werewolf
ophiomancer: Hunter
slownewsday: Villager
flowen: Villager
starryshadows: Villager, lover
sylvan: Villager, lover
cambler: Villager
giantlaser: The Seer
sonicbunny: Werewolf
gwydion82: Villager
ragnarok_now: The Martyr
lorriet: Villager
smurfetts_lamb: Ghost
slojae: Werewolf
stride: Werewolf
rustymaggot: Bodyguard
The RULES:
http://millershollow.livejournal.com/905
Miller's hollow index:
http://ma8p.com/~adam/ljgames/millershol
September 30 2009, 18:49:12 UTC 2 years ago
Re: The List ....
So ... unless the Killer gets realy tricky - I'm dead tonight.It doesn't hurt anything to tell you all that the previous evening when there was no wolf kill I SAVED Rusty with my potion. I FULLY figured Rusty would have protected himself last night, but ...
I have my poison, and now is the time to use it (assuming it will go off before the killer gets me ???).
UNFORTUNATELY - anyone could be the killer at this point, even snoopy. The afflicted no longer matters. Just me and the killer.
Time for the accusations to fly fast and furious, but PLEASE include reasoning if there is any.
We have a DISMAL 14% chance to guess the killer for lynching.
Tomorrow, there will be only 6 left alive. If one is still the killer there will have only a 16% chance of IDing the killer. the next day will see the sun shine on only 4 townspeople ... at least then ther will be a 25% chance ... course it will be the LAST chance ...
2 years ago
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September 30 2009, 18:41:51 UTC 2 years ago
September 30 2009, 18:45:15 UTC 2 years ago
September 30 2009, 18:47:23 UTC 2 years ago
2 years ago
September 30 2009, 18:47:49 UTC 2 years ago
:-P
Is it fortunate or no that this proves the animal name == wolf theory void?
September 30 2009, 18:49:15 UTC 2 years ago
Stride was evil!
**** Would love the serial killer to kill the damn duck. *****September 30 2009, 18:58:40 UTC 2 years ago
Re: Stride was evil!
The duck is legendary now. Many have tried to kill him, all have failed. Some got turned into tasty snacks. Or made into slippers and the occasional hat. Even if you killed him, he'd just come back ... undead.Strangely you've never seen any other ducks in town, the only other birds being vultures, ravens, and crows. So I have no clue what sort of bird flesh you were eating earlier in the game :)
2 years ago
2 years ago
2 years ago
2 years ago
September 30 2009, 18:49:27 UTC 2 years ago
As far as finding the killer goes, only one of us has an alibi. Logophylia1 the Witch.
Werewolves of Miller's Hollow has just turned into Clue.
September 30 2009, 18:52:27 UTC 2 years ago
2 years ago
2 years ago
2 years ago
September 30 2009, 18:53:16 UTC 2 years ago
One. More. Time!
I move to elect a Sheriff.September 30 2009, 19:02:07 UTC 2 years ago
Re: One. More. Time!
Is this a good idea? I'm not criticizing, but let's face it, you can be a little eager to elect Sheriffs and we should talk this out first.If we elect the serial killer as sheriff, we're pretty much done. Also, whoever is elected sheriff will probably be killed every night in an attempt by the serial killer to get the position for themselves.
If the witch poisons someone and the serial killer kills someone and we lynch someone tonight, we're down to 5 people. The next night we'd be down to 3 people and that would be the last chance. It doesn't look like a tie would even be possible (except maybe tonight).
What are your thoughts?
2 years ago
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2 years ago
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September 30 2009, 18:56:08 UTC 2 years ago
And
I move to elect a Sanitation Commissoner. The bodies are starting to really smell up the place.September 30 2009, 19:14:41 UTC 2 years ago
Re: And
Hmmm, maybe a Sanitytation comissioner would be better ...2 years ago
September 30 2009, 19:23:46 UTC 2 years ago
Is it better to get this over with faster !
I just did the math. With failed guesses to try to lynch the killer, the town has 3 days untill the ultimate ending.If I kill tonight with a failed poisoning, it moves the timetable up to 2 days.
Do y'all want to make it faster ?
September 30 2009, 19:47:29 UTC 2 years ago
Re: Is it better to get this over with faster !
Here is my theory. I think that the SK is an inexperienced player, based on kill history. That is an assumption, because the wolf of course can be an experienced player making it look like that, but that's the wine... Based on that, it leaves Snoopy or Faymar as the likely suspects. I think I'm going to vote Faymar, simply because she's agreed with me much more throughout the game. I would certainly not mind if you poisoned Snoopy in the night, just to give me some more clearance. However, that takes you trusting me, which is always a hard thing in these games :D2 years ago
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September 30 2009, 19:36:56 UTC 2 years ago
B) I feel so very sexy for calling both wolves like that, yesterday. C) What the hell happened in the night?
September 30 2009, 19:44:08 UTC 2 years ago
2 years ago
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September 30 2009, 19:52:27 UTC 2 years ago
vote jeeves as the serial killer.
September 30 2009, 19:54:19 UTC 2 years ago
2 years ago
September 30 2009, 19:53:29 UTC 2 years ago
http://ma8p.com/~adam/ljgames/millershollow || cuddlepuddle data missing ?
It looks like we can no longer pull up the posts/ voting data for past days on http://ma8p.com/~adam/ljgames/millershoSeptember 30 2009, 20:31:45 UTC 2 years ago
Re: http://ma8p.com/~adam/ljgames/millershollow || cuddlepuddle data missing ?
Just crashed, i think.2 years ago
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September 30 2009, 20:19:23 UTC 2 years ago
September 30 2009, 20:56:38 UTC 2 years ago
I decided I wanted to make this top tier, so I could find it again:
Reposted!In Depth Analysis time!:
Night 1: SK kills Myshanter. I was very surprised by this, as she is excitable, get more chatty as the game goes on, and isn't well known by most of the people here... It's a random kill, an intelligent call, but nothing exceptional.
Night 2: SK gets Chessiekitty. Pure luck. Another seemingly random kill, yields results. We love the serial killer.
Night 3: SK goes for the Hunter. It's a mistake, as I said before, because the SK doubles up on a kill. The SK especially should not have gone for the hunter, because they do not have the redundancy the wolves had. If the hunter shoots them in retaliation, they're done.
Night 4: SK gets Sonicbunny. I'd had my own suspicions of him, but again, it's mostly a random, lucky kill. They're doing a good job of avoiding a pattern, but that's not a sign of experience, but intelligence.
Night 5: Ragnarok goes down in martyr glory. It is impossible to tell how this kill actually happened. It is either a mistake (SK targeted Rusty, along with the wolves) or proof that I'm wrong (SK got unlucky, and targeted the Martyr independantly). Since I can't make a conclusion, I'm forced to ignore this.
Night 6: SK goes and Kills Lorriet, leaving Rusty alive. I view this as a huge mistake, for the reasons stated previously.
Night 7: SK kills Stride. HUGE MISTAKE. Yes, we've no wolves. But let the village do the work. We'd have likely lynched Stride today once we found that Slojae was actually a wolf. The killer would have been better served by killing off someone else, or even the Witch, in preparation for the total endgame. It was a very inexperienced move, in my opinion, getting caught up in the "Kill the wolf!" mentality of the village, and not following their own goal.
That concludes Dragon's Attack Analysis. As for H&H, he is in fact my suspicion if the inexperienced theory doesn't pan out. The only data we have is the SK kill records. Given the fact that I have shared my conclusions, I can do no more on that. There is one corollary factor, which is not damning, but worries me about H&H. Since I've not got a night phase, I've been at leisure to sleep through the 11 o'clock deadlines. I don't post at the end of many days, simply cause I've finally crashed, and don't get up until noon. The night phases have, for the most part, been very short. The players have been active at the right times, and gotten everything done. H&H has been doing a lot of posting at the end of days, and that makes me a little suspicious. If you'd like to change the time on trying my theories, I'll gladly vote H&H today. But I still think we're better served by dropping the newer players today, and offing H&H tomorrow.
One mistake you made, however, is that your potion does not cost us a day. You HAVE to use it. We lynch one. We're at 7. SK kills you, we're at 6, you poison, we're at 5. Day one complete. Day two, we lynch one, SK kills one. We're at 3.
As opposed to. We lynch one, SK kills one, we're at 6. Lynch, kill, 4. It makes no difference, we've got two days left. Might as well give those last two villagers 50% odds, instead of 33%.
September 30 2009, 21:06:32 UTC 2 years ago
Re: I decided I wanted to make this top tier, so I could find it again:
Today/tonight - Assuming we don't lynch killer - 2 kills = 6 left (serial plus 5)2nd day/ night - Assuming you don't lynch killer (I don't anticipate surviving) - 2 kills = 4 left (serial plus 3)
3rd day/ night - Assuming you don't lynch killer - 2 kills = 2 left (serial plus 1 = END)
Vs
Today/tonight - Assuming we don't lynch killer - 2 kills + my poison = 5 left (serial plus 4)
2nd day/ night - Assuming you don't lynch killer (I don't anticipate surviving) - 2 kills = 2 left (serial plus 1 = END)
Am I wrong in this math ?
2 years ago
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September 30 2009, 22:33:27 UTC 2 years ago
They also fit Dragonattack's "SK is a noob" analysis.
October 1 2009, 00:00:07 UTC 2 years ago
My gut is telling me DA's logic leads to Faynmar,
Expierenced and smart leads to Hungry Hollow or evilben,
and avoident points to snoopy. Wanting to draw snoopy back in I would vote for him, but not wanting to prolong multiple ties I am going to join in on the no love for faymar.
VOTE FAYMAR
October 1 2009, 00:08:36 UTC 2 years ago
2 years ago
October 1 2009, 01:33:07 UTC 2 years ago
unvote jeeves
vote dragonattack
October 1 2009, 01:40:02 UTC 2 years ago
I don't know that it makes him the SK, but he seems to be very loudly taking charge and posting some pretty in-depth arguments as to why we shouldn't even be looking in his direction.
2 years ago
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October 1 2009, 02:12:52 UTC 2 years ago
A good sheriff plan
I thought of a way to keep the witch one more day.Vote in a sheriff (not the witch)
Have the sheriff put the witch in jail for the night.
The witch will last ONE MORE full round.
One more day to decide who the poison goes to.
I think you need a sheriff!!
October 1 2009, 02:15:32 UTC 2 years ago
Re: A good sheriff plan
The Sheriff doesn't jail people, that's the magistrate. Also, the magistrate doesn't jail people at night, only the day. Thanks for thinking, though :DOctober 1 2009, 02:14:43 UTC 2 years ago
October 1 2009, 14:20:04 UTC 2 years ago
Now at that point, what's to be done with your information?
October 1 2009, 02:18:01 UTC 2 years ago
October 1 2009, 06:48:14 UTC 2 years ago
October 1 2009, 06:56:58 UTC 2 years ago
October 1 2009, 16:26:28 UTC 2 years ago
October 1 2009, 18:01:03 UTC 2 years ago