millershollow ([info]millershollow) wrote,
2007-07-27 11:12:00

Day 10

It took most of the night for the village to put out the fire at the town hall. Thus when the sun finally shown the next morning, the entire town was weary and tired from lack of sleep. The villagers, exhausted from their long night, gathered at the skeleton of the former town hall, the stench of burnt wolf thick in the air. One by one they counted each other off and sure enough, another one of their numbers was dead.

The wandered glumly to [info]cuddlycthulhu's cottage where they found [info] and some [info]evilben clones dragging his mauled body outside. "Take it down to the sub-basement." Jeeves ordered the clones. "It will make a nice meal for the creature imprisoned down there."

SUMMARY: [info]cuddlycthulhu the VILLAGER is DEAD!

Day will end at 11am Monday.

  • Post a new comment

    Error

    Anonymous comments are disabled in this journal

    switch

    Your reply will be screened

    Your IP address will be recorded 

     
    Help
  • 127 comments

[info]daedalus4096

July 27 2007, 18:18:18 UTC 4 years ago

...WTF?!

Dammit, I thought I had this figured out, too!

[info]lorriet

July 27 2007, 18:19:47 UTC 4 years ago

Well, there are two options here: You did it...or someone is trying to frame you. :P

[info]daedalus4096

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]lorriet

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]daedalus4096

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]parzanese

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]daedalus4096

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]parzanese

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]lorriet

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]hungryandhollow

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]daedalus4096

July 27 2007, 18:20:37 UTC 4 years ago

To be clear...

Why the hell didn't they eat H&H?! Just because it was a continuation of the previous plan? Or is it an attempt to implicate me?

If H&H is lying and the real Cupid hasn't spoken up, I'm going to be *pissed*. Until then, he's above reproach.

[info]gorillashaman

July 28 2007, 00:57:22 UTC 4 years ago

I thought that was obvious. hungryandhollow is very likely not a lover. Why eat him when you could get a chance for a 2-for-1 ?

[info]hungryandhollow

July 27 2007, 18:22:33 UTC 4 years ago

LOL WHAT

[info]hungryandhollow

July 27 2007, 18:23:52 UTC 4 years ago

I AM RIDICULOUSLY BAFFLED. I thought I would be dead, which would almost be convenient since i'm going to a family reunion this weekend. Well, time to read yesterday's stuff and see what I can work out before I leave...

[info]lorriet

July 27 2007, 18:26:53 UTC 4 years ago

I think the wolf was still hoping to get the lovers. Unless he is one of the lovers...

[info]cambler

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]gorillashaman

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]hungryandhollow

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]cambler

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]daedalus4096

4 years ago

  • Loading...
...and 2 more comments... from [info]gorillashaman Expand

[info]cambler

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]lorriet

July 27 2007, 18:25:44 UTC 4 years ago

So, we have:

One sorcerer
One wolf
One Cupid
Three villagers

Two of those are lovers. The lovers can't vote to lynch each other, or to eat the other lover.

Hm...

[info]hungryandhollow

July 27 2007, 18:39:08 UTC 4 years ago

I'm suspicious of Daedelus, after all that hullabaloo at the end of "yesterday", and still suspicious of Lorriet a little. Right now that's all I've got. I may have figured out why I'm still alive, but I don't want to give anything away just yet. Let's just say I'm pretty sure we're going to come out on top of this, if I've worked it out right. I think one or two other people here might understand what's going on, so if you do and you think it's time to put the cards on the table, let me know.

[info]cambler

July 27 2007, 18:50:08 UTC 4 years ago

I think I've figured it out, too.

The remaining wolf is either daedelus or loriet.

[info]lorriet

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]cambler

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]lorriet

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]cambler

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]lorriet

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]hungryandhollow

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]cambler

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]gorillashaman

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]daedalus4096

July 27 2007, 19:23:44 UTC 4 years ago

I am neither a wolf nor the sorcerer. Obviously I don't expect any of you to take my word for that, particularly given some of the poor decisions I've made this game. I'm currently trying to gather evidence of the real remaining wolf and will post again when I have something. Please keep an open mind.

[info]hungryandhollow

July 27 2007, 19:32:59 UTC 4 years ago

I'm not saying I'll vote for you no matter what - I am open to arguments - but you have to admit you looks more suspicious than anyone else.

[info]lorriet

July 27 2007, 19:32:17 UTC 4 years ago

So, are most people assuming that devil_engine is innocent, just a vitcim of being uninformed?

[info]hungryandhollow

July 27 2007, 20:45:04 UTC 4 years ago

i am, personally.

[info]cambler

July 27 2007, 21:20:36 UTC 4 years ago

Oh, that makes MUCH more sense now.

unvote daedalus4096

vote devil_engine

[info]lorriet

July 27 2007, 21:38:24 UTC 4 years ago

*raises an eyebrow*

Really?

*looks doubtful*

[info]cambler

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]lorriet

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]cambler

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]lorriet

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]cambler

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]devil_engine

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]gorillashaman

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]cambler

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]gorillashaman

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]cambler

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]devil_engine

July 27 2007, 22:05:04 UTC 4 years ago

From everything I'm gathering thus far, from reading between the lines between [info]cambler and H&H and hoping that I understand what they mean...I'm going to go with vote [info]daedalus4096

[info]daedalus4096

July 27 2007, 23:13:13 UTC 4 years ago

Please see my post below and reconsider.

[info]lorriet

July 27 2007, 22:09:46 UTC 4 years ago

The way I see it, there are two scenarios that could be happening:

The remaining wolf has is trying to get to the lovers OR

The remaining wolf IS a lover, and is trying for the Lover's Victory thingy.

I don't see devil_engine being sophisticated enough in the game to go for the second scenario. And, seeing as he nearly offed himself the other day, I don't have reason to really suspect him at this point, unless he's the best bluffer EVER.

[info]lorriet

July 27 2007, 22:43:16 UTC 4 years ago

Interesting...a few days ago, H&H had this to say "Well, much as I'd like to stay alive, I don't think it's likely I'll reveal the lovers. I'm still holding out for a lover win someday, unlikely as that may be."

I wonder if he places more trust in his lovers, because he picked them. I wonder if he would sacrifice Miller's Hollow to achieve that. It is possible that we have 1 wolf, 1 villager lovers.

I think Cambler, regardless of any mysterious calculations that he has done, is wrong on his guesses for today.

I'm not ready to vote yet, I need to think more. I had already eliminated Daedalus from my suspect list a day or so ago. But, the options I am left with don't make total sense, either.

[info]daedalus4096

July 27 2007, 23:09:02 UTC 4 years ago

Okay. I think I've got this figured out.

The last wolf is Cambler.
He and Gorillashaman are the lovers.
Here's why.

First, some base assumptions.
1) Hungryandhollow is being truthful about his role as Cupid. As nobody has challenged his claim, I'm willing to accept this.
2) Hungryandhollow is not one of the lovers. He's been one of them enough times in the past to know that being in love is only a hindrance in this game.
3) I am not one of the lovers. To prove it: Vote Lorriet, Unvote Lorriet, Vote Abstain. I have now voted for or been voted for by every surviving player. It is mechanically impossible for me to be one of the lovers.
4) I am not a wolf. Understandably, this one will be the hardest for you all to accept. Let me just say that if I were a wolf, I would have played this game *much* differently than they have. If people wish to hear further evidence in my own defense, I will happily provide it.

First, let me establish that the two of them are the lovers, as this is the easiest to show. Based on previous votes, there are currently only four possibilities as to who the lovers could be, assuming that you accept the above assumptions regarding the lovers:
- Cambler & Gorillashaman
- Lorriet & Cambler
- Lorriet & Devil_engine
- Lorriet & Gorillashaman
While Lorriet is statistically most the most likely to be one of the lovers, I don't believe this is the case for two reasons. First, H&H yesterday said that he would want to see a lover victory. However, he also voted for Lorriet that day. As these actions are inconsistent, the only possibility that leaves is Cambler and Gorillashaman.

In order to achieve a lover's victory, Cambler would have to ensure that all of his fellow wolves were lynched, but not too fast or too slow. Too fast, and he'd run out of places to hide from the villagers. Too slow, and he wouldn't be able to remove the remaining wolves without giving his intentions away. To this end, after a long streak of villager kills, including the devastating double loss of the witch and the hunter, he had to risk voting for Baronlaw after a consensus had already started forming. Being the other most experienced wolf in the pack, Baronlaw was the one most likely to figure out Cambler's true motives. When the seer came out on day 5, Baronlaw's death was then unavoidable, as was Dragonattack's; he could vote for them with impunity.

Cambler was also the first and most vocal opponent of my suggestion for debate after Makellan was turned. Yes, it was a very suspicious thing for me to do; I knew that when I said it. But only Cambler went so far as to accuse me of being a wolf when I did so, even saying that my request for debate wouldn't be helpful even if I was right. He had to discredit me, not just because he couldn't afford a new wolf in the pack, but because I'd chosen his lover as my talking point.

Continued in reply, due to post length...

[info]daedalus4096

July 27 2007, 23:09:28 UTC 4 years ago

Continued from above...

Another pattern of their cooperation emerged yesterday. By this point, Gorillashaman had likely figured out that Cambler and Darkjuan were the remaining wolves, possibly with subtle help from Cambler. Gorillashaman latched onto Devil_engine's suicide attempt, Cambler kicked it up a notch, and Gorillashaman immediately followed suit. Once it became clear that Devil_engine wasn't going to remain a viable victim, Gorillashaman backed off and diverted the group's attention to Darkjuan. Cambler removed his Devil_engine vote in support, but chose to abstain. He likely figured that if he turned on his last wolf obstacle in such a close vote, Darkjuan may have outed them both in retaliation; voting for someone else, though, would risk an unintended target change.

Today, Cambler's "suspects" are shifting between three possibilities: me, Lorriet, and Devil_engine. After all, we're the three targets he has left. H&H's credibility is thus far above reproach and he dare not draw any attention to Gorillashaman. Similarly, Gorillashaman has taken advantage of my spat with Cuddlycthulhu yesterday to make a very tempting target out of me, and Cambler promptly joined the dogpile.

So, this leaves us in a bit of a quandry. The wolf and his lover have whittled us down to a very small population pool. The sorcerer is likely going to support his wolf master now that they know who that is, assuming they didn't already, potentially bringing team evil up to three. As I suspect that Gorillashaman is also the sorcerer, though, we may be lucky on this count.

The wild card, then, is Cupid. He's still alive, despite all odds, by the grace of the lovers. He's stated that he wants a Lovers' Victory, which I believe is why they've spared him. The question, then, is what Hungryandhollow is going to do with this information. If he sides with Cambler and Gorillashaman, they have 50% of the vote and the rest of us are screwed. If he doesn't, we can end this now.

So Cupid, what's it gonna be?

Oh yeah, I almost forgot...
Vote Cambler

[info]lorriet

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]gorillashaman

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]lorriet

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]daedalus4096

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]devil_engine

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]gorillashaman

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]cambler

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]daedalus4096

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]gorillashaman

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]daedalus4096

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]gorillashaman

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]daedalus4096

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]gorillashaman

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]daedalus4096

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]gorillashaman

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]daedalus4096

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]cambler

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]daedalus4096

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]cambler

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]cambler

July 28 2007, 03:00:16 UTC 4 years ago

This is important enough to get it top-level. My reply, above:

I'm not a wolf and not a lover, either.

But I do think that you got it right. I might as well say it now, the lovers are, as you said, Lorriet & Devil_engine.

Devil_engine is the wolf.

He was prepared to sacrifice himself to take out Lorriet, the villager.

I urge you to change your vote to devil_engine

[info]daedalus4096

July 28 2007, 03:21:28 UTC 4 years ago

The rebuttal to your claim is important to make visible as well.

The idea that a wolf would sacrifice himself to take out an ordinary villager is patently absurd. Even if said wolf didn't know about the Lovers' Victory, there's no reason whatsoever to make such a sacrifice.

[info]cambler

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]daedalus4096

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]cambler

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]daedalus4096

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]cambler

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]devil_engine

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]cambler

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]gorillashaman

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]lorriet

July 28 2007, 03:56:59 UTC 4 years ago

Dear Cambler,

Vote devil_engine.

[info]lorriet

July 28 2007, 03:57:42 UTC 4 years ago

unvote devil_engine
vote cambler

[info]daedalus4096

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]cambler

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]lorriet

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]cambler

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]gorillashaman

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]cambler

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]daedalus4096

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]gorillashaman

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]daedalus4096

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]gorillashaman

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]lorriet

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]gorillashaman

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]hungryandhollow

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]hungryandhollow

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]daedalus4096

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]gorillashaman

July 28 2007, 05:51:04 UTC 4 years ago

Have we pretty much proven I'm a lover at this point? Because if so, I'm certain to be pushing up daisies this time tomorrow.

[info]hungryandhollow

July 29 2007, 00:09:34 UTC 4 years ago

Just to let everyone know, I'm at a family reunion this weekend, so this will probably be my last post until I return home tomorrow night. Apologies that I didn't have time to respond to everything here - there's a lot of interesting theories floating around, but I don't have time to do them all justice. I'll get to them ASAP, and you should all have plenty of time to read them and consider them. For now, my vote stands, although it is definitely subject to change when I get caught up on all this debate.

[info]hungryandhollow

July 29 2007, 05:16:50 UTC 4 years ago

Well, got a few minutes, read up on everything. Like I said before, a lot of interesting theories and so forth, but really it all seems to come down to the fact that we've got a split decision, and right now I intend to keep my vote for Daedalus. Any particular things I should address?

[info]daedalus4096

July 29 2007, 07:20:17 UTC 4 years ago

I see you've made your choice. Congratulations on engineering your lovers' victory. Does that mean we can end this charade, or do you intend to make us continue waiting for Cambler to finish us?

[info]hungryandhollow

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]gorillashaman

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]hungryandhollow

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]daedalus4096

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]gorillashaman

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]cambler

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]hungryandhollow

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]hungryandhollow

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]lorriet

July 29 2007, 16:45:10 UTC 4 years ago

Gorillashaman wrote: Regardless of who you believe, or which way you vote, be sure to do it because there's some logic involved, and not simply because you're feeling "stubborn" because of a pushy or manipulative villager.


I absolutely would change my vote if I thought I was wrong. I'm stubborn, not stupid. And, I value winning over being right (by a narrow margin, mind you :P).

The theory that daedalus spelled out was one that had been forming in my mind (see my post right before his first long one). The identity of both lovers was something I'd suspected for a few days (though the Lover's Victory didn't enter my mind until later.). After day 3 or so, I surmised you were one of the lovers, based on some comments that you had made.

Anyway, the fur will fly as it will. At this point, there seems no way for a village victory; the only options are wolf or lover victory.

Me? I'm packing a gun with silver bullets tonight, and maybe I'll get lucky.

[info]lorriet

July 30 2007, 14:35:43 UTC 4 years ago

My work internet is sometimes patchy, so I'm going to unvote cambler and I abstain</> for right now, since everyone's positions seem intractable, and there's no sense prolonging the inevitable by forcing a runoff vote.

Now, if that's not the case, and someone changes their minds or something, I'll revisit my abstention.

[info]lorriet

July 30 2007, 14:36:28 UTC 4 years ago

Sorry for the mad bolding up there. :P

[info]daedalus4096

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]lorriet

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]cambler

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]lorriet

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]cambler

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]lorriet

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]cambler

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]devil_engine

4 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]hungryandhollow

July 30 2007, 15:31:55 UTC 4 years ago

i'm headed out to Tulare so I won't be able to post before 11. Looking forward to seeing how things work out today.

[info]daedalus4096

July 30 2007, 16:48:12 UTC 4 years ago

So it would seem that all is lost, then. Oh well, at least I get to die quick and clean. Better than being eaten, I suppose...
Create an Account
Forgot your login or password?
Facebook Twitter More login options
English • Español • Deutsch • Русский…