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The villagers were awakened by several howls during the night. Apparently the wolves were angry at the loss of two of their numbers. With heads covered by bed sheets, the villagers shook in their beds.
When morning finally came, the villagers, one by one, arrived at the town hall, looking tired and weary from being awake most of the night. To their shock, everyone who was present the day before, was present this morning.
SUMMARY: NO ONE DIED DURING THE NIGHT!
July 24 2007, 18:48:27 UTC 4 years ago
July 24 2007, 18:52:53 UTC 4 years ago
July 24 2007, 19:01:29 UTC 4 years ago
It's clear the AFFLICTED was activated.
The most likely wolf target last night was makellan, because the SEER confirmed him as a villager.
The second most likely wolf target last night was hungryandhollow, because of his undisputed claim to be the CUPID.
Of the two, if I were a wolf, I'd have gone after makellan.
So now, assuming they did, and he was actually the AFFLICTED, then he's a WOLF now, and we should lynch him.
vote makellan
I say this may be a good thing, because if I'm right, then the net effect of all that is that the wolves were actually deprived of a kill last night, thus extending the game.
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July 24 2007, 18:56:07 UTC 4 years ago
July 24 2007, 19:09:45 UTC 4 years ago
July 24 2007, 19:20:40 UTC 4 years ago
Vote
July 24 2007, 19:46:05 UTC 4 years ago
But on the other hand, now that we'd figured out their strategy, they very well might change it. Especially if Dragonattack was telling the truth about masterminding it and not smokescreening, with the leader of that strat gone they might well pick another one.
And, frankly, I don't have anything to go off of besides gut feelings and suspicions anyway. So I'll vote makellan.
July 25 2007, 14:58:54 UTC 4 years ago
July 24 2007, 20:30:35 UTC 4 years ago
Gorillashaman puts forth a sound theory as to why Makellan is most likely a wolf now. I'm very tempted to get behind this theory, but I'm leery of unwittingly perpetuating a dogpile. So, I'm going to do something a little different.
Vote Gorillashaman
My main concern is that Makellan is too obvious a choice for these wolves. From the beginning, their choice of targets has been designed to confuse and mislead, never picking who we thought they would. Given my previous suspicion of him and the fact that he was the one to make this suggestion, I'm going to stick with my initial guess.
Please note that I am *not* attempting to say that Makellan is not a wolf. I'm unconvinced either way on that point. Of course, it's entirely possible that I've succumbed to WIFOM Syndrome and am totally wrong. Take my vote for whatever you think it's worth.
July 24 2007, 20:36:17 UTC 4 years ago
I think you've over analyzed your position in hoping to sow discord, and, in doing so, made your wolfness clear.
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July 25 2007, 04:52:35 UTC 4 years ago
The wolves were told of our breaking of their strategy and therefore would obviously change it.
The main use of eating a confirmed villager is to silence a voice that isn't likely to get lynched. Since I'm the most obvious candidate for munching, munching me at this point just confirms my theories of yesterday.
vote darkjuan
July 25 2007, 05:06:32 UTC 4 years ago
July 25 2007, 06:37:56 UTC 4 years ago
Sorry, if you're a villager then I'll cry on your body.
vote
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July 25 2007, 05:20:09 UTC 4 years ago
There are 12 people left.
Two are wolves and one is Cupid
I therefore have a 1/9 chance of being the Afflicted.
I have a 8/9 chance of being normal or at least not now a wolf.
I still think darkjuan is the threat here.
I'll double the booze I owe you if you help me out of this dogpile.
July 25 2007, 06:11:52 UTC 4 years ago
Invoking the grandmoffdavid defense?
vote makellan
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July 25 2007, 05:30:46 UTC 4 years ago
I also like gorillashaman's thinking on this. "confirmed villager" most likey a big wolf target, somehow lives through the night?
VOTE makellan
July 25 2007, 15:47:32 UTC 4 years ago
Some hints to my new canine brothers (remember, I haven't met them in human form yet and know not who they are).
Eat
I figure
Don't be so obvious as to your snacks. Remember the first half of the game wherein we were all totally confused about whom to lynch? Keep that up.
July 25 2007, 16:00:17 UTC 4 years ago
July 25 2007, 16:13:17 UTC 4 years ago
daedalus4096 & gorillashaman, hungryandhollow
darkjuan & devil_engine, flipperchaz, hungryandhollow
devil_engine & gorillashaman
flipperchaz & gorillashaman
gorillashaman & stride, hungryandhollow
lorriet & stride, hungryandhollow
ragnarok_now & stride, hungryandhollow
July 25 2007, 16:30:10 UTC 4 years ago
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July 25 2007, 16:25:38 UTC 4 years ago
After
We also have a Sorceror (which doesn't matter since the Seer is dead but would be voting to hang villagers in the hopes of a wolf win), Ralh Nader (which doesn't matter much since the Seer fingered an actual wolf and the Afflicted), Lovers (which is bad if one of them gets it then the other goes too), and a Magistrate left.
People who have been suspected are gorrillshaman, darkjuan, cambler, and hungryandhollow.
Since today is decided, let's talk about tomorrow.
July 25 2007, 16:36:50 UTC 4 years ago
Ok, look at it like this. There's 11 villagers and 2 wolves left. If I wasn't Cupid, I'd have to be a wolf. That means all the real Cupid has to do is expose me, and I get lynched and he gets eaten. That would give us 10 villagers and 1 wolf. There's not a villager alive who wouldn't make that sacrifice. I know that it can't be proven 100%, but after three days of being out of the Cupid closet, the odds of me being a wolf masquerading as a Cupid are ridiculously low.
As for gorillashaman, I find it highly unlikely that a wolf would throw the afflicted to us so readily, when their numbers are down like this. Cambler seems like his usual self. Darkjuan is too new for me to get a feeling on him. Flipperchaz is too quiet for my tastes, I'm wary of Stride, and Daedelus's "let's not vote Makellan" thing, while perfectly understandable, looks a bit suspicious.
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July 25 2007, 16:29:40 UTC 4 years ago
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